Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 11.467388 13.143445 14.951740 17.044304 19.395572 21.952299 24.939226
2025-05-04 8.861912 11.096266 13.697376 16.935297 20.842953 25.390855 31.067819
2025-05-11 7.435921 9.861262 12.826470 16.692896 21.572756 27.495946 35.195047
2025-05-18 6.454958 9.012905 12.279788 16.717554 22.541924 29.873367 39.739666
2025-05-25 5.774083 8.431203 11.955151 16.912870 23.639313 32.369466 44.464072
2025-06-01 5.147206 7.836796 11.531057 16.899169 24.407162 34.426613 48.676067
2025-06-08 4.581200 7.255668 11.052042 16.737294 24.915651 36.112483 52.422561
2025-06-15 4.188534 6.879353 10.815986 16.875410 25.816809 38.343373 56.986109
2025-06-22 3.942997 6.695133 10.833750 17.364496 27.224868 41.326611 62.718819
2025-06-29 3.561618 6.258096 10.428892 17.179270 27.610658 42.842163 66.395763
2025-07-06 3.083657 5.616203 9.650357 16.353477 26.962944 42.788265 67.744535
2025-07-13 2.923159 5.484211 9.663792 16.759675 28.212091 45.592579 73.438566
2025-07-20 2.749979 5.319511 9.618527 17.079474 29.362348 48.332155 79.213492
2025-07-27 2.515211 5.023871 9.331461 16.980029 29.832609 50.042854 83.486353
2025-08-03 2.281857 4.705876 8.976904 16.733700 30.033592 51.319047 87.108457
2025-08-10 2.115697 4.495927 8.792004 16.759581 30.677789 53.317011 91.943863
2025-08-17 1.990394 4.351271 8.710215 16.954926 31.610008 55.810148 97.664331
2025-08-24 1.847106 4.156748 8.520793 16.941336 32.174119 57.712683 102.486545
2025-08-31 1.697762 3.934729 8.261405 16.779050 32.461066 59.154004 106.589541
2025-09-07 1.598758 3.806780 8.169807 16.917492 33.282286 61.521421 112.320801
2025-09-14 1.547723 3.775671 8.263047 17.407663 34.759003 65.065112 120.172438
2025-09-21 1.426439 3.579601 8.013828 17.222026 34.981758 66.435832 124.340483
2025-09-28 1.251305 3.244702 7.456573 16.394387 33.957658 65.560844 124.560874